[Undergrad] UMAT 2017 Results Discussion

[A1]

Oh! I was think that GPA would drop it, but that's good to know it might actually bump it up!!

For anyone interested here's my analysis of UNSW's methodology for combining GPA+ATAR to an equivalent number.

First I believe the statement "high distinctions in some courses and distinctions in the rest" meaning 6.x to maintain 98 ATAR is way too conservative, presumably to allow for students at the HD=80+ unis. I tend to go more with the individual advice of 6.4 UAC/UNSW scale to maintain 99.3 - which is more in line with 7.0=99.9 and 6.0=99.0

Next because ATAR numbers are not linear we need to refer to UAC aggregate table : 99.95=476, 99.0=446, 98.0=430, 97.0=420. It shows the 99.95-99.0 gap is 30 marks, 99-98 is 15, 98-97 is 10. Combining 99.0 with 97.0 would result in a middle point around 98.3 not 98.0, i.e. skewed more toward the higher number.

Thus I estimated 5.75 (around mid-98s) combined with 97.6 should come to low-98s.

 

[Sandwiches271]

For anyone interested here's my analysis of UNSW's methodology for combining GPA+ATAR to an equivalent number.

First I believe the statement "high distinctions in some courses and distinctions in the rest" meaning 6.x to maintain 98 ATAR is way too conservative, presumably to allow for students at the HD=80+ unis. I tend to go more with the individual advice of 6.4 UAC/UNSW scale to maintain 99.3 - which is more in line with 7.0=99.9 and 6.0=99.0

Next because ATAR numbers are not linear we need to refer to UAC aggregate table : 99.95=476, 99.0=446, 98.0=430, 97.0=420. It shows the 99.95-99.0 gap is 30 marks, 99-98 is 15, 98-97 is 10. Combining 99.0 with 97.0 would result in a middle point around 98.3 not 98.0, i.e. skewed more toward the higher number.

Thus I estimated 5.75 (around mid-98s) combined with 97.6 should come to low-98s.

Great thank you so much for explaining this!

Do you know if UAC gets sent my marks for each subject or just the grade? Eg. Some of my distinctions last semester were 80+ so would they be considered lower than other unis who give HD to 80+ due to mine contributing 6.0 towards the GPA and theirs a 7.0 towards the GPA?

Sorry I don't fully understand the GPA system...

 

[biom]

First I believe the statement "high distinctions in some courses and distinctions in the rest" meaning 6.x to maintain 98 ATAR is way too conservative

A1 That is a big call.

UNSW would certainly never want to be more harsh than its public statements. That is a different to assuming that they will be less harsh.

In the end... I don't know obviously and can only refer to the public statements.

 

[karenh]

A1 That is a big call.

UNSW would certainly never want to be more harsh than its public statements. That is a different to assuming that they will be less harsh.

In the end... I don't know obviously and can only refer to the public statements.

Hey A1

Sorry for deviating from the discussion about GPA and ATAR, but I was curious as to how you calculate (roughly) the chance for an offer at UNSW and Monash. Whilst I'm not the best with maths, it's pretty amazing how you calculate the approx chances!

I remember you predicting a 60% chance at Monash and 50% at UNSW with 96th UMAT and 99 ATAR. How much does every ATAR point increase/decrease the chance? Do you work it out like that?

 

[A1]

Do you know if UAC gets sent my marks for each subject or just the grade? Eg. Some of my distinctions last semester were 80+ so would they be considered lower than other unis who give HD to 80+ due to mine contributing 6.0 towards the GPA and theirs a 7.0 towards the GPA?

Based on your provided student number UAC looks up your uni transcript to get your marks. I think students at the HD=80+ unis get their GPA grades adjusted to UAC scale.

Sorry just to clarify, are you predicting 30-40% chance for an interview or for a place for UNSW?

If as I estimated your equiv is low-98s then you can be sure of a UNSW interview. The 30-40% chance is for a place offer, but could drop to 20% chance if your equiv is below 98.0

A1 That is a big call.
UNSW would certainly never want to be more harsh than its public statements.

UNSW is being more harsh *in* the public statements i.e. if students need less than HDs+Ds to maintain 98.0, or their HDs+Ds raises their 98.0 higher, they would be happy and not complain.

 

[biom]

Do you know if UAC gets sent my marks for each subject or just the grade?

I would guess this as well A1 .

UNSW only deals in WAMs internally. They like it so much that one faculty produces a competing WAM which they assess is more representative of performance.

Strange that we cannot have a common grading system in Australia.

 

[A1]

Sorry for deviating from the discussion about GPA and ATAR, but I was curious as to how you calculate (roughly) the chance for an offer at UNSW and Monash. Whilst I'm not the best with maths, it's pretty amazing how you calculate the approx chances!

I wrote a brief explanation for it in the Q8 part of this post > [Applying for Med] FAQs on the Basics

together with numbers given by UNSW Med themselves: 99.95/86%ile=50% chance, 97.6/96%ile=5% chance, 99.9/99%ile= pretty high chance, 99.0/90%ile=low chance (since it's just enough to get an interview) etc. Then interpolate approximately for the numbers in between.

Not sure if the method works the same for Monash (which btw uses the same 33/33/33 weighting), I just add 10% to the chance because its place/interviewee ratio is 1 in 2.5 vs UNSW's 1 in 3. If anyone doesn't like this just ignore me haha.

 

[Brian Hua]

I'm estimating my WAM to be at the high 80s/ low 90s (HD average) and I have a UMAT percentile of 95. What are my chances of making it into UNSW/WSU/UNE's medical programs assuming I don't screw up interviews?

 

[biom]

I'm estimating my WAM to be at the high 80s/ low 90s (HD average) and I have a UMAT percentile of 95. What are my chances of making it into UNSW/WSU/UNE's medical programs assuming I don't screw up interviews?

Out of interest, what are you studying and which year are you in?

They are outstanding marks. Congrats.

 

[Brian Hua]

Currently, the first year studying Diagnostic Radiography at USYD.
Cheers mate

 

[A1]

I'm estimating my WAM to be at the high 80s/ low 90s (HD average) and I have a UMAT percentile of 95. What are my chances of making it into UNSW/WSU/UNE's medical programs assuming I don't screw up interviews?

Your chances of making into WSU & JMP are the same as for all interviewees there, 1 in 3 and 1 in 4.

I see in your other post your ATAR was 96.6, with UNSW this is combined with your GPA to approx mid-98s and with 95%ile I guess around 30% chance.

 

[karenh]

I wrote a brief explanation for it in the Q8 part of this post > [Applying for Med] FAQs on the Basics

together with numbers given by UNSW Med themselves: 99.95/86%ile=50% chance, 97.6/96%ile=5% chance, 99.9/99%ile= pretty high chance, 99.0/90%ile=low chance (since it's just enough to get an interview) etc. Then interpolate approximately for the numbers in between.

Not sure if the method works the same for Monash (which btw uses the same 33/33/33 weighting), I just add 10% to the chance because its place/interviewee ratio is 1 in 2.5 vs UNSW's 1 in 3. If anyone doesn't like this just ignore me haha.

Hahah no I appreciate it, gives me an approx sense of direction and where I'm sitting at! Thanks A1

 

[faysapprentice]

What would happen for a university where the HD equivalent is at 80 not 85 e.g. unimelb where to get a H1 in a subject you need 80 in the course?

 

[DrDrLMG!]

What would happen for a university where the HD equivalent is at 80 not 85 e.g. unimelb where to get a H1 in a subject you need 80 in the course?

As far as I'm aware, it's all 'evened out' between applicants by the various admissions centres. Even UTAS, who do not have an admissions centre as such (ie. UAC, VTAC) use a similar external agency process to complete all the initial rankings.

 

[acbard9]

With 95-96 ATAR a high 6s/7 GPA should bring to 98-98.5 equivalent. For this you would need UMAT 95%ile to get a UNSW interview with 10-20% admission chance, 98-99%ile for 50% chance.

Just an update. I have asked SATAC what my equivalent ATAR is from the A-Level results I obtained in my final year of high school, and apparently it's 94.20 . Given that my GPA will stay ~6.75+ (my NZ GPA is 8.71/9, 5 papers above 90%, 1 paper 87%, 1 paper 89%), what are my chances now for UNSW/JMP with a good UMAT?

 

[Mana]

Just an update. I have asked SATAC what my equivalent ATAR is from the A-Level results I obtained in my final year of high school, and apparently it's 94.20 . Given that my GPA will stay ~6.75+ (my NZ GPA is 8.71/9, 5 papers above 90%, 1 paper 87%, 1 paper 89%), what are my chances now for UNSW/JMP with a good UMAT?

To be honest, given that Adelaide's medical school doesn't accept anyone with a tertiary record, your ATAR in South Australia didn't really matter.

However, if you assume that the other states will give you the same ATAR:

JMP will deem you below the ATAR cutoff (94.3) however you would be able to use that GPA to satisfy the cutoff instead; it's then 100% on your interview and PQA (if you made the 61/50/50 cutoff in UMAT).

UNSW would use your ATAR and your GPA and combine them (I expect this would bump you to around the equivalent of a ~96 ATAR if that). To even get an interview at UNSW would require a UMAT in the 200's, and even so your chances are pretty slim to none unless your UMAT was in the 230+ range (and you might not even make the ATAR equivalent range with that ATAR and GPA). This is one where you're welcome to try, but you're highly, highly unlikely to get a place.

 

[A1]

UNSW would use your ATAR and your GPA and combine them (I expect this would bump you to around the equivalent of a ~96 ATAR if that).

+1 on the JMP comment. For UNSW I checked UAC table A9, the mid-point aggregate between 99.5 and 94.0 corresponds to around mid-97s so I hope UAC/UNSW will give dreytho97 that.

With mid-97s you'll need 96%ile UMAT to scrape an interview (ref UNSW giving 97.6/96th 5% chance), or 99%ile+ for somewhat realistic chance.

 

[acbard9]

Thank you for your analyses, Mana and A1! If worse comes to worst, I'll probably just do GAMSAT instead .

At the risk of making the situation a little more confusing, I've received an early(?) offer for BVisSc/MClinOptom at UNSW, which usually has an ATAR cut-off of 98.00 (although last year, main round cut-off was 97.00).

 

[A1]

At the risk of making the situation a little more confusing, I've received an early(?) offer for BVisSc/MClinOptom at UNSW, which usually has an ATAR cut-off of 98.00 (although last year, main round cut-off was 97.00).

Only speculating but combining ATAR+GPA may be UNSW Med's choice, not UNSW-wide. The other school could consider your GPA only which is well above 98.0

 

[thegreatestever]

Hello ladies and gentleman,
Just wondering what my options are considering that I failed the umat this year heavily. For starters, I believe that I may receive an ATAR of low 99's and if not, definitely in the high 98's. For the SA universities, I am eligible for University Equity bonus points which are for financial hardships and will boost a 98.2 to 99.95 so I would say it's same to assume I can get 98.2 which for SA universities is treated as a 99.95, which gives a bit of leeway as Adelaide uni is 40% atar whereas flinders is 90% ATAR and 10% UMAT. I am currently looking into do year 13 next year but only doing the subjects of English and chem so I have the interstate options, but I really would prefer to stay within Adelaide. If I were to go to Uni next year and resit UMAT, there's a bit of a problem as the Uni of Adelaide will only accept their own students whereas flinders only accepts school leavers. This can be a problem as Adelaide does not have any worthwhile degrees that have a decent guaranteed career at the end like physio or optometry whereas Flinders does, but if I go to flinders, I rule out the option of undergrad Med in SA completely. I do not want to do any Healh Science course as what if I never pass the UMAT and end up with the degree which is of no use to me. What would you do in my situation?
Thanks