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My Guess Is...

A1

Rookie Doc
Moderator
It is possible that that the percentile cut-offs for med schools that accept non-standards will go up a bit while the cut-offs for other med schools slightly go down.

That's true. You have thought it out more deeply than I have.
 

LeSpicyGinger

Flinders MD II
Excellent find! Using the mean and standard deviation provided, we can pretty accurately extrapolate the 9th decile for 2006-2010. They are:

2006: 2720
2007: 2740
2008: 2780
2009: 2790
2010: 2820

2016 introduced Decision Making for the first time but it was a trial subtest, meaning that it wouldn't be scored and candidates could choose not to do it, leaving only three cognitive subtests (scored out of 2700). If we divide 2150 by 3 and multiply it by 4, we can extrapolate a rough four-section-adjusted 90th percentile score of ~2866.67.
If this is true, I'm crying inside XDD. All things considered, I have accepted this as a likely reality though.
 
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fray20

Member
Amazing. Now can you do us a favour and research the weighting of UCAT in the selection criteria of the UK medical schools in 2006-2007 😛

I’m going to take a leap and say that if it’s weighted similarly to how it is in NZ (I.e. not very high) that the small “jump” in the first year won’t be able to be relied upon as a valid predictor of what will happen in Aus this year because 1. UCAT wouldn’t be worth as much so there’s less incentive to heavily prepare for it like there is over here and 2. Medicine entry is far more competitive in 2020 than it was in 2006-2007.

I’ve made my prediction so now I need to double down on it despite the evidence 🤪

You may be joking, but someone has already beaten me to it 😆. A quick google search has me finding an entire research article on the use of UKCAT from 2006 to 2010, published in 2011. I'll briefly sum it up below. Use of UKCAT scores in student selection by UK medical schools, 2006-2010

From what I have skimmed through in my search, in the UK, you can apply to up to 5 universities through UCAS (similar to UAC), and you can have four as medical schools, and interview invites can only come from the 4 universities you applied to. There are around 33 medical schools in the UK currently, and 26 consider the UCAT (in 2019).
Different universities weigh UKCAT differently. Adam et al. (2011) have classified their methods (for 2006-2009 sitting) into 4 different categories; borderline, factor, threshold and rescue. Some schools used multiple methods at different stages of the selection process.
Borderline - used as a discriminant when applicants are of equal standing based on other criteria.
Factor - Used as one component that makes up the applicant's total score (2% to 33% weighting). Some schools just used it for interview invites, and other schools would add an applicant's interview score to the pre-interview total score, and used the new total score to decide an offer.
Threshold - A minimum score used as cut off.
Rescue - Some schools had their own method of assessment, and would allow UKCAT (above a pre-determined level) to be used to compensate for a lower score in a component of their assessment. "The key characteristic of the trade-off method that distinguished it from the factor method was that the school pre-determined the scores at which the trade-off would be applied and the amount of compensation to be given."

1596275417203.png
 

Crow

Staff | Junior Doctor
Moderator
You may be joking, but someone has already beaten me to it 😆. A quick google search has me finding an entire research article on the use of UKCAT from 2006 to 2010, published in 2011. I'll briefly sum it up below. Use of UKCAT scores in student selection by UK medical schools, 2006-2010

From what I have skimmed through in my search, in the UK, you can apply to up to 5 universities through UCAS (similar to UAC), and you can have four as medical schools, and interview invites can only come from the 4 universities you applied to. There are around 33 medical schools in the UK currently, and 26 consider the UCAT (in 2019).
Different universities weigh UKCAT differently. Adam et al. (2011) have classified their methods (for 2006-2009 sitting) into 4 different categories; borderline, factor, threshold and rescue. Some schools used multiple methods at different stages of the selection process.
Borderline - used as a discriminant when applicants are of equal standing based on other criteria.
Factor - Used as one component that makes up the applicant's total score (2% to 33% weighting). Some schools just used it for interview invites, and other schools would add an applicant's interview score to the pre-interview total score, and used the new total score to decide an offer.
Threshold - A minimum score used as cut off.
Rescue - Some schools had their own method of assessment, and would allow UKCAT (above a pre-determined level) to be used to compensate for a lower score in a component of their assessment. "The key characteristic of the trade-off method that distinguished it from the factor method was that the school pre-determined the scores at which the trade-off would be applied and the amount of compensation to be given."

View attachment 3834
Ok, wow, I was definitely joking!

You’ve well and truly outdone yourself this time! You’re officially on my “people that make Crow happy” list. 😎
 

jambobs

Member
I have heard a rumour that Univeristy of Sydney is significantly increasing their (post-grad) Csp places for 2021 in light of huge losses during covid. Does anyone have any thoughts as to whether this is likely to carry on to under-grad medical unis?
 

Crow

Staff | Junior Doctor
Moderator
I have heard a rumour that Univeristy of Sydney is significantly increasing their (post-grad) Csp places for 2021 in light of huge losses during covid. Does anyone have any thoughts as to whether this is likely to carry on to under-grad medical unis?
I can’t imagine these are CSP places - is it possible they’ve replaced international places with domestic FFPs? Do you have any official source?
 

Crow

Staff | Junior Doctor
Moderator
Reddit definitely is NOT an official source, haha!

ETA: That's a ridiculous change and I am very surprised to be reading it. An extra 100 CSPs is enormous - all of these places are guaranteed an internship on graduation and USYD would lose a huge amount of money. Not to mention the uni is still claiming 70 international student positions are still on offer. I have to think something is incorrect, there, but who knows.
 
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A1

Rookie Doc
Moderator
in light of huge losses during covid.

I'm curious, huge losses of what?

If it implies losses of int'l student revenues and USyd need to increase med CSPs to make up I don't think USyd can freely do that. First due to a tight control by the federal gov on domestic med quotas, second the NSW gov would have to guarantee a higher number of intern positions for domestic med graduates. Obviously USyd cannot dictate this on the NSW gov.
 

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jambobs

Member
Sorry, that first link wasn't that clear - i read through the fiscal report and there is no specific mention of usyd.
see my edit. the second link has a screenshot
 

DrDrLMG!

Resident Medical Officer
Administrator
Reddit definitely is NOT an official source, haha!

ETA: That's a ridiculous change and I am very surprised to be reading it. An extra 100 CSPs is enormous - all of these places are guaranteed an internship on graduation and USYD would lose a huge amount of money. Not to mention the uni is still claiming 70 international student positions are still on offer. I have to think something is incorrect, there, but who knows.

Also, didn't USyd give away* some of their CSPs to the JPM*?

(Actually, I think I heard that from sn1p, let me try and check. ETA: yep, checked, this is what he reported to me elsewhere)

* I use that term loosely, as I'm sure there was some kind of quid pro quo.
 

A1

Rookie Doc
Moderator
Nope, I've looked on PD and it's being widely discussed by many USYD applicants who received the "confirmation page".

USyd website is still showing total 300 places of which 3/4 are CSP+BMP and 70 full-fee places for int'l students.

This means 200 grad intake + 30 provisionals + 70 int'ls = 300. This 230 domestics matches well with MedDeans data.

Otoh it matches neither letters. The 2019 letter said 200 including 30 provis so that itself was wrong. The 2020 letter says 300 which matches the total if including int'ls. So this could be due to these letters being written by an amateurish person.

Btw I checked the GEMSAS 2021 Guide. Intakes are practically the same as last year.
 

YeahTrueHey

Member
Also, didn't USyd give away* some of their CSPs to the JPM*?

(Actually, I think I heard that from sn1p, let me try and check. ETA: yep, checked, this is what he reported to me elsewhere)

* I use that term loosely, as I'm sure there was some kind of quid pro quo.
sorry if this is a dumb question but what is JPM? is this just the JMP at Newcastle/ Armidale
 

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Crow

Staff | Junior Doctor
Moderator
USyd website is still showing total 300 places of which 3/4 are CSP+BMP and 70 full-fee places for int'l students.

This means 200 grad intake + 30 provisionals + 70 int'ls = 300. This 230 domestics matches well with MedDeans data.

Otoh it matches neither letters. The 2019 letter said 200 including 30 provis so that itself was wrong. The 2020 letter says 300 which matches the total if including int'ls. So this could be due to these letters being written by an amateurish person.

Btw I checked the GEMSAS 2021 Guide. Intakes are practically the same as last year.
The most recent 2020 letter says there are 300 total CSPs (including the breakdown of 210 CSPs and 90 BMPs - only 30 of which are provisional entry) which disagrees with this - it’s still 100 extra CSPs from the letter last year which also included provisional entry numbers. These numbers are for domestic entry students only. I feel it’s unlikely someone stuffed up the number of CSPs and BMPs on offer in the letter given they’re rather specific numbers?
 

DrDrLMG!

Resident Medical Officer
Administrator
The most recent 2020 letter says there are 300 total CSPs (including the breakdown of 210 CSPs and 90 BMPs - only 30 of which are provisional entry) which disagrees with this - it’s still 100 extra CSPs from the letter last year which also included provisional entry numbers. These numbers are for domestic entry students only. I feel it’s unlikely someone stuffed up the number of CSPs and BMPs on offer in the letter given they’re rather specific numbers?

I got the impression A1 was saying, when compared to Med Deans' data, the 2019 letter wasn't accurate*, so it's entirely possible the 2020 one isn't either?

* and this also included quite specific, but ultimately inaccurate, numbers.
 
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Crow

Staff | Junior Doctor
Moderator
I got the impression A1 was saying, when compared to Med Deans' data, the 2019 letter wasn't accurate*, so it's entirely possible the 2020 one isn't either?

* and this also included quite specific, but ultimately inaccurate, numbers.
Oh, maybe I took home the wrong message - I’m more focused on the fact that there’s a 100 place discrepancy between the two year’s letters! Perhaps that 30 place discrepancy with the website / MedDeans and the letters can be accounted for by repeating, deferred and Indigenous entry places which fall outside of the number of places being offered to applicants of a new intake?
 

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