My Guess Is...

[ucatnoob]

bruh if the 90th percentile this year is gonna be 3000+ then idek what half of us on this forum are gonna do

 

[Eleanor Rigby]

All I want to know is the 50% percentile predictions for this year. All these figures of 90th percentile is giving me nightmares !

 

[lasa]

The percentiles in the UK haven't changed much throughout the entire existence of UKCAT so I don't imagine it'd fluctuate too far from last year's stats too

 

[ucatboy]

that bell curve tho

 

[Nardwuar]

View attachment 3825
View attachment 3826
that bell curve tho

Hey would you be open to sharing the document where you have compiled all the scores that have been posted? (view only just so we can see)

 

[DrDrLMG!]

The percentiles in the UK haven't changed much throughout the entire existence of UKCAT so I don't imagine it'd fluctuate too far from last year's stats too

It would be interesting to know the stats difference (if one existed at all) between year 1 of UKCAT and year 2 (as would parallel where we are up to with UCAT). Only because year 1 = everyone doing the exam for the first time (maybe with the odd exception of a few who’d done UKCAT previously), compared to year 2 where X% of test takers are repeaters.

 

[missyallie]

It would be interesting to know the stats difference (if one existed at all) between year 1 of UKCAT and year 2 (as would parallel where we are up to with UCAT). Only because year 1 = everyone doing the exam for the first time (maybe with the odd exception of a few who’d done UKCAT previously), compared to year 2 where X% of test takers are repeaters.

hahahah i think UKCAT started so many years ago in the UK, is the data even available!

bruh if the 90th percentile this year is gonna be 3000+ then idek what half of us on this forum are gonna do

not just half.. most of us would cease to even exist

 

[Crow]

It would be interesting to know the stats difference (if one existed at all) between year 1 of UKCAT and year 2 (as would parallel where we are up to with UCAT). Only because year 1 = everyone doing the exam for the first time (maybe with the odd exception of a few who’d done UKCAT previously), compared to year 2 where X% of test takers are repeaters.

Yep, I discussed this in chat box the other day with ucatboy. My prediction is that the curves will shift upwards this year, probably more significantly than it ever will in future years, and then the curve will stabilise after that.

 

[nb]

The mean is only about 10 points higher this year, but I know that's not all that should be looked at when making predictions (due to obvious outliers). My prediction now is that the 90th percentile will be 2870 this year, 95th percentile will be 2970, and the 99th percentile will be 3220.

 

[A1]

The mean is only about 10 points higher this year,

Did you compare the current against ucatboy 's previous post (which was data up to last week)?
Last year's MSO average was 2860, currently it's 2984.

 

[ucatboy]

hahahah i think UKCAT started so many years ago in the UK, is the data even available!

Data goes back as far as 2008, as can be seen here: Technical Reports | UCAT Consortium

The UKCAT piloted in 2006, so unfortunately the first two years of data are irretrievable

Please note that the 2019 Technical Report is for the UK folks, not us, don't get confused

Hey would you be open to sharing the document where you have compiled all the scores that have been posted? (view only just so we can see)

I'll upload the data once the testing period is over. I considered doing a Google Spreadsheet so that you guys can see the numbers update in real time, but unfortunately it's got nowhere near the graphing and formula capabilities. Sorry about that

 

[nb]

Did you compare the current against ucatboy 's previous post (which was data up to last week)?
Last year's MSO average was 2860, currently it's 2984.

hm. I don't know. I just have this gut feeling that although the MSO average has increased by more than 100, the actual UCAT average will have increased by only 20-30 points. (Or maybe I'm biased and really want my 2940 to be above 90th percentile). xD

 

[Unluckydude]

It would be interesting to know the stats difference (if one existed at all) between year 1 of UKCAT and year 2 (as would parallel where we are up to with UCAT). Only because year 1 = everyone doing the exam for the first time (maybe with the odd exception of a few who’d done UKCAT previously), compared to year 2 where X% of test takers are repeaters.

Based off the statistics on this forum, most repeaters seem to perform significantly better in their second attempt. If that was true, I would expect the cut-offs for meds schools that accept non-standard applicants (JMP, WSU and to a less extent UNSW and Adelaide) to increase by a even greater margin this year compared to the change in the cut-off required for 90th percentile.

 

[fray20]

So it seems I found the annual reports for UKCAT 2006 and 2007. The mean score in 2006 (the first year of the test) was 2375, and in 2007 was 2401.

Year​	Total Mean​	SD​	9th Decile​	No. of Sitters​
2006​	2375​	269​	-​	18540​
2007​	2401​	263​	-​	20167​
2008​	2430​	275​	-​	20512​
2009​	2505​	220​	-​	23721​
2010​	2489​	258​	-​	25257​
2011​	2476​	263​	2790-2800​	24951​
2012​	2516​	280​	2850​	25431​
2013​	2643​	317​	3030​	25679​
2014​	2505​	252​	2820​	23884​
2015​	2530​	253​	2840​	23565​
2016​	1892​	202​	2150​	23359​
2017​	2541​	250​	2860​	24841​
2018​	2485​	256​	2810​	27469​
2019​	2483​	249​	2800​	29366​

​

Notes:
UKCAT used a subtest called Decision Analysis until 2015.
There were only 3 subtests in 2016 so the maximum score you can achieve was 2700.
Decision Making subtest was introduced in 2017.
In 2013, the mean for Decision Analysis was 771 ( in 2012 it was 647 and in 2014 it 614). UKCAT notes that the shift in mean was mostly due to Decision Analysis.

This is just a quick look at the data from UKCAT. I didn't look much into factors that could have influenced the scores of a year. Finding the 9th decile score for 2010 and prior was not a success, but if I end up finding it, I'll edit them in.

I also found this interesting data from the 2008 annual report (that was not discussed in the 2007 report).

 

[ucatboy]

So it seems I found the annual reports for UKCAT 2006 and 2007. The mean score in 2006 (the first year of the test) was 2375, and in 2007 was 2401.

Year​	Total Mean​	SD​	9th Decile​	No. of Sitters​
2006​	2375​	269​	-​	18540​
2007​	2401​	263​	-​	20167​
2008​	2430​	275​	-​	20512​
2009​	2505​	220​	-​	23721​
2010​	2489​	258​	-​	25257​
2011​	2476​	263​	2790-2800​	24951​
2012​	2516​	280​	2850​	25431​
2013​	2643​	317​	3030​	25679​
2014​	2505​	252​	2820​	23884​
2015​	2530​	253​	2840​	23565​
2016​	1892​	202​	2150​	23359​
2017​	2541​	250​	2860​	24841​
2018​	2485​	256​	2810​	27469​
2019​	2483​	249​	2800​	29366​

​

Notes:
UKCAT used a subtest called Decision Analysis until 2015.
There were only 3 subtests in 2016 so the maximum score you can achieve was 2700.
Decision Making subtest was introduced in 2017.
In 2013, the mean for Decision Analysis was 771 ( in 2012 it was 647 and in 2014 it 614). UKCAT notes that the shift in mean was mostly due to Decision Analysis.

This is just a quick look at the data from UKCAT. I didn't look much into factors that could have influenced the scores of a year. Finding the 9th decile score for 2010 and prior was not a success, but if I end up finding it, I'll edit them in.

I also found this interesting data from the 2008 annual report (that was not discussed in the 2007 report).
View attachment 3833

Excellent find! Using the mean and standard deviation provided, we can pretty accurately extrapolate the 9th decile for 2006-2010. They are:

2006: 2720
2007: 2740
2008: 2780
2009: 2790
2010: 2820

2016 introduced Decision Making for the first time but it was a trial subtest, meaning that it wouldn't be scored and candidates could choose not to do it, leaving only three cognitive subtests (scored out of 2700). If we divide 2150 by 3 and multiply it by 4, we can extrapolate a rough four-section-adjusted 90th percentile score of ~2866.67.

 

[DrDrLMG!]

Based off the statistics on this forum, most repeaters seem to perform significantly better in their second attempt. If that was true, I would expect the cut-offs for non-standard entries (JMP, WSU and to a less extent UNSW and Adelaide) to increase by a even greater margin this year compared to the change in the cut-off required for 90th percentile.

None of WSU, UNSW, or JMP put non-standard applicants in a pool seperate to school leavers. There is no ‘non-standard cut-off’.

 

[Crow]

So it seems I found the annual reports for UKCAT 2006 and 2007. The mean score in 2006 (the first year of the test) was 2375, and in 2007 was 2401.

Year​	Total Mean​	SD​	9th Decile​	No. of Sitters​
2006​	2375​	269​	-​	18540​
2007​	2401​	263​	-​	20167​
2008​	2430​	275​	-​	20512​
2009​	2505​	220​	-​	23721​
2010​	2489​	258​	-​	25257​
2011​	2476​	263​	2790-2800​	24951​
2012​	2516​	280​	2850​	25431​
2013​	2643​	317​	3030​	25679​
2014​	2505​	252​	2820​	23884​
2015​	2530​	253​	2840​	23565​
2016​	1892​	202​	2150​	23359​
2017​	2541​	250​	2860​	24841​
2018​	2485​	256​	2810​	27469​
2019​	2483​	249​	2800​	29366​

​

Notes:
UKCAT used a subtest called Decision Analysis until 2015.
There were only 3 subtests in 2016 so the maximum score you can achieve was 2700.
Decision Making subtest was introduced in 2017.
In 2013, the mean for Decision Analysis was 771 ( in 2012 it was 647 and in 2014 it 614). UKCAT notes that the shift in mean was mostly due to Decision Analysis.

This is just a quick look at the data from UKCAT. I didn't look much into factors that could have influenced the scores of a year. Finding the 9th decile score for 2010 and prior was not a success, but if I end up finding it, I'll edit them in.

I also found this interesting data from the 2008 annual report (that was not discussed in the 2007 report).
View attachment 3833

Amazing. Now can you do us a favour and research the weighting of UCAT in the selection criteria of the UK medical schools in 2006-2007

I’m going to take a leap and say that if it’s weighted similarly to how it is in NZ (I.e. not very high) that the small “jump” in the first year won’t be able to be relied upon as a valid predictor of what will happen in Aus this year because 1. UCAT wouldn’t be worth as much so there’s less incentive to heavily prepare for it like there is over here and 2. Medicine entry is far more competitive in 2020 than it was in 2006-2007.

I’ve made my prediction so now I need to double down on it despite the evidence

 

[Unluckydude]

None of WSU, UNSW, or JMP put non-standard applicants in a pool seperate to school leavers. There is no ‘non-standard cut-off’.

Sorry, what I meant was med schools that accept non-standard applicants. I’ll edit it.

 

[A1]

Sorry, what I meant was med schools that accept non-standard applicants.

In the overall scheme one UCAT repeater scoring a high percentile pushes a non-repeater down the percentile ladder. The 90%ile score this year could be higher, but *all else being equal* there should be no significant change to the invite cutoff percentile. Any change from the repeat factor would be proportionally more non-standards (who repeated UCAT).

 

[Unluckydude]

In the overall scheme one UCAT repeater scoring a high percentile pushes a non-repeater down the percentile ladder. The 90%ile score this year could be higher, but *all else being equal* there should be no significant change to the invite cutoff percentile. Any change from the repeat factor would be proportionally more non-standards (who repeated UCAT).

It is possible that that the percentile cut-offs for med schools that accept non-standards will go up a bit while the cut-offs for other med schools slightly go down.