Hey!
I was in the same position as you last year. Unfortunately, based on previous years, 86%ile means a slim chance to receive a UNSW offer – last year someone that got 90%ile UMAT with a maximum ATAR didn't receive a second round interview at all, although 86%ile may get you an interview in the first round interview as interview cutoffs are usually lower for December rounds (you would need a really good interview).
[ A1's comment: It would be most unusual for a top ATAR + 90%ile to not have received a UNSW interview even for 2nd round. I suspect the likely reason was the person forgot to submit the direct application to UNSW].
The cutoff for non-GWS UWS last year relied mostly on UMAT sections 1 + 2 scores, I'm not too sure how it is calculated this year and whether specific sections are weighed more. However, someone who got a 99%ile UMAT didn't receive an interview at all (granted his section 1 and 2 scores were lower than his section 3). GWS is more favoured.
With your scores, you should have a good chance of receiving an interview for JMP, and you are not disadvantaged by your scores compared to other candidates as JMP admission is based completely off the interview (I believe admission rate is around 1 in 4-6, so not as high as say UNSW or UWS interview to admission ratio, but everyone is on level playing ground once invited: correct me if I'm wrong here).
For Flinders (90% ATAR, 10% UCAT), you will likely need a 99.95 to 99.90 ATAR to receive an offer pretty much regardless of UCAT, possibly 99.85 if your UCAT is higher. Similar for Melbourne's Chancellors pathway – 99.90 with interview in 3rd year, no UCAT.
I'm not too sure about Adelaide, but based off previous years you should receive an interview provided that your ATAR is sufficient, a BMP offer is potentially in reach.
Receiving an interview for Monash interstate students is very unlikely, unless rural entry. Many interstates that applied with incredibly high ATAR/UCAT combinations unexpectedly didn't receive interviews from Monash at all.
Compared to VIC/NSW/SA, I would say that you have a much better shot at WA and QLD universities. I'm not sure if you've applied QTAC or TISC?
The cutoff for Griffith last year was 99.75 at the Gold Coast Campus, and 99.70 at the Nathan Campus, and 99.55 for the USC program on the Sunshine Coast. If you could aim high for your ATAR, your chances are good at Griffith.
JCU does not look at UCAT I believe, and has a reasonable ATAR cutoff, invitation for interview looks mostly at your application provided you meet their cutoffs.
UQ is unfortunately likely out of the question as the bonded cutoff was 99 (OP1)/93%ile last year, and 96%ile for unbonded.
Bond has a 96 ATAR cutoff I believe, with no consideration for UCAT. I believe they cut half the potential candidates after the psychometric testing, then half the remaining candidates after the interview. If you can afford it, Bond could be an option.
I'm not too sure about UWA and Curtin – but chances are you will be more competitive there compared to VIC/NSW/SA.
Medical applications are rough, to receive an offer anywhere is a privilege. Good luck with your applications.