[Undergrad] Medical Student Tsunami - how it affects premedschool students

[steve mate]

I reckon if re-rostered junior medical staff to a system of 8 and 10 hour shifts and a 40 hour week, you'd create more places simply to cover what was previously covered as overtime.

That's similar to what they did in the UK, to address their increase in med grads. Interestingly while it reduced hours of work the increase in hand overs led to more errors!

While I think it probably is fair enough to say no other degree is assured a job when they graduate why should med students. We can't go straight and work for a private company when we graduate with a Bmed/MBBS, like people with law degrees can. I don't know of anyother pathways with a medical degree, as far as i know we have to go through the public system so we can get full registration.

In QLD they are predicting the workforce shortage to increase even with triple the amount of grads. So it's not just about us saying we want jobs its about the public needing doctors. Why waste so much of the publics money training them if they can't practise and fill the workforce needs.

 

[chinaski]

That's similar to what they did in the UK, to address their increase in med grads. Interestingly while it reduced hours of work the increase in hand overs led to more errors!

It's been statistically shown that an increase in handover correlates strongly with more stuff-ups. I cannot re-iterate enough: the UK has made a lot of mistakes in addressing their graduate oversupply. This was one of them. Increasing the amount of time doctors work on after hours shifts does not equal satisfactory training. Period.

In QLD they are predicting the workforce shortage to increase even with triple the amount of grads. So it's not just about us saying we want jobs its about the public needing doctors. Why waste so much of the publics money training them if they can't practise and fill the workforce needs.

To practice, first you need to be trained - and that is where the shortfall is. IMO, if there had been more time invested in recruiting and retaining fully fledged doctors (ie consultants and senior registrars) and less in giving millions of dollars to universities to suddenly jack up the graduate numbers, we would be better set to train the increasing numbers of grads we are expecting in the next decade. But, simply put, we are left with the problem of too many grads, and no-one to teach them.

 

[theangelofdarkness]

We have a lot to learn from the UK's mistakes, but unfortunately I'm not sure we're going to apply them.
Balancing the number of people to train vs the number of people teaching is something that should have been worked out when we increased the number of places in medical schools.

 

[~shinigami~]

To be honest dentistry trumps medicine in a whole lot of ways.

It's a better lifestyle, the pay is better, the training time is less, and the job security is looking like it's going to be a lot better.

Better pay should probably be deleted from that list from the looks of things.

With the economic downturn which is most apparent in the US but more importantly, Australia is also being affected, and the fact that Dentistry graduate numbers will double across Australia; it's not looking too good.

Sure it's not a tsunami but a small wave in an even smaller pool is going to cause a lot of problems. Economically, the good times are up, recession is coming and dental work will be the last on most people's priorities during a recession.

The short version, demand will lessen and the supply will double.

Disclaimer (in aussiechica style): It's hard to predict things 5 years from now but this is how it's shaping up to be.

So people, think carefully before you go into Dentistry, Mining Engineering and Physics (Geology) with money as one of the pros, actually scrap that, lets go the full idealistic route, just do something you'll enjoy.

Am I going to jump ship? Unless I get scouted by some Japanese, Korean or Taiwanese entertainment/music company, I'm staying right where I am. Why? I've fallen in love with dentistry.

Peace ^____________^V

 

[chinaski]

We have a lot to learn from the UK's mistakes, but unfortunately I'm not sure we're going to apply them.
Balancing the number of people to train vs the number of people teaching is something that should have been worked out when we increased the number of places in medical schools.

Without question, that's true.

 

[Hayden]

Nice post Shini

 

[~shinigami~]

Nice post Shini

Haha thanks Hayden, I thought that with me usually making uninformed and stupid posts, I'd write a sensible one once in a while to make up for it.

 

[L337]

To be honest dentistry trumps medicine in a whole lot of ways.

It's a better lifestyle, the pay is better, the training time is less, and the job security is looking like it's going to be a lot better.

The only advantage medicine has for someone like me is academic interest. It's a shame I don't have any interest in dentistry because in a lot of ways its a much better career path. All I really want out of medicine is the enjoyment I get out of learning and the practical application to complement that learning. There's a lot of crap that comes with medicine that I don't particularly want. All the drama surrounding the med student tsunami is nothing short of depressing. It's not what I signed up for and the last thing I want to deal with when I graduate is more competition. The competition involved with getting into medicine was painful enough.

Medical school looks very much to be a big, easy calm before the storm postgraduation is shaping up to be. At the moment though, medical school is everything I wanted it to be and I couldn't be happier about that.

At first I was like...

Better pay should probably be deleted from that list from the looks of things.

With the economic downturn which is most apparent in the US but more importantly, Australia is also being affected, and the fact that Dentistry graduate numbers will double across Australia; it's not looking too good.

Sure it's not a tsunami but a small wave in an even smaller pool is going to cause a lot of problems. Economically, the good times are up, recession is coming and dental work will be the last on most people's priorities during a recession.

The short version, demand will lessen and the supply will double.

Disclaimer (in aussiechica style): It's hard to predict things 5 years from now but this is how it's shaping up to be.

So people, think carefully before you go into Dentistry, Mining Engineering and Physics (Geology) with money as one of the pros, actually scrap that, lets go the full idealistic route, just do something you'll enjoy.

Am I going to jump ship? Unless I get scouted by some Japanese, Korean or Taiwanese entertainment/music company, I'm staying right where I am. Why? I've fallen in love with dentistry.

Peace ^____________^V

...then I was all

But nah, i'm also sticking it out with the teeth broseph - somehow i've come to be quite fond of the lil world of dentistry (sad as that may sound lol). Also if i left, i'd never get a chance to hang with you at dent convention ^_^

 

[~shinigami~]

...then I was all

But nah, i'm also sticking it out with the teeth broseph - somehow i've come to be quite fond of the lil world of dentistry (sad as that may sound lol). Also if i left, i'd never get a chance to hang with you at dent convention ^_^

Yes except now we'll be hanging out at the dent convention without our diamond-studded Rolexes. :mellow:

 

[L337]

Yes except now we'll be hanging out at the dent convention without our diamond-studded Rolexes. :mellow:

Rolexes are overrated bro, I prefer Guess or DKNY watches anywayz ^_^

 

[~shinigami~]

Rolexes are overrated bro, I prefer Guess or DKNY watches anywayz ^_^

I am a watch noob....so I'll just pretend and nod. *nods*

 

[L337]

I am a watch noob....so I'll just pretend and nod. *nods*

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stuffz like that :3

 

[~shinigami~]

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stuffz like that :3

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Yeh I agree.

 

[steve mate]

From Martin B Van Der Weyden, Editor of the MJA- https://www.mja.com.au/public/issues/189_07_061008/martin_061008.html

While we are assured that working parties are preparing a considered response to our impending crisis, the casual observer may well feel these deliberations are trapped in bureaucratic power plays between federal and state jurisdictions. Above all, there is an enervating sense of non-urgency.
Ultimately, this training tsunami will have an impact not only on students, but also on doctors involved in prevocational and vocational training. At risk is the quality of future generations of doctors.
By all means, indulge in endless procrastinating committees and reports, but effecting systemic change can be slow. In the looming crisis, we need answers. And we need these soon.

I think this rather appropriate. While, as Kyle noted, $10 mill has just been given to investigate other settings in NSW i feel skeptical about it all and i think it fits into the quote above, it will just give another report.

 

[L337]

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Yeh I agree.

Damn, linkies seems to be broken... T__T

 

[woozy]

https://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24490675-12332,00.html

The issue has finally got some attention in the australian.

ANDREW Hobson isn't bad at maths, a factor contributing to his selection as a first-year medical student at the University of Queensland. So when he compares the 734 students to be awarded Queensland medical degrees in 2011 and the 667 hospital internships on offer in 2012, he worries. The numbers don't compute.

First-year medical student Andrew Hobson. Picture: Lyndon Mechielson
"Everyone sits there and says: 'Wow.' All of a sudden there's added pressure, almost competition, between the students because most of us know that as of 2012, here in Queensland, we no longer have that guaranteed intern spot."

Hobson is a product of a belated government realisation in the late 1990s that Australia was about to run out of doctors. In the years that followed, it did, to the point where it now draws 36 per cent of its general practitioners from overseas. That figure jumps to 41 per cent in the bush.

Canberra was forced into a hasty rethink of its earlier policies aimed at limiting over-servicing by doctors. Its complaints about too many GPs and blow-outs in Medicare billing costs were replaced by a hefty catch-up investment in medical schools.

By 2012, 19 medical schools - almost double the number operating throughout the '90s - will struggle with record throughput. Domestic graduate numbers will total almost 3000, an 86 per cent increase on last year's output. But although one problem seems solved, another has emerged.

Australia may have students in the pipeline, but a lack of training places before and after graduation - in hospitals, in general practice and the specialties - threatens to block the workforce flow just as it starts.

The country's medical deans warned earlier this year the number of young doctors was starting to exceed the capacity of some clinics, hospitals and medical colleges to give them on-the-job training and access to patients. "The situation is becoming critical," they said.

The cracks first appeared in 2005, however. That year, the Australian Medical Workforce Advisory Committee concluded the country was short of 800 to 1300 GPs. It was also the year that a Medical Journal of Australia study revealed teaching hospitals in the University of Newcastle medical school catchment had started to fall behind on clinical placements for the next generation of doctors.

The school's student population outnumbered patients available on any given day by two to one.

It reminds Australian Medical Students Association president Michael Bonning of the British debacle, where a dearth of National Health Service training positions left thousands of young doctors jobless.

"That's exactly what we're worried about," Bonning says. "The situation here hasn't yet reached those dire projections that we've seen in the UK, but what we want to do is learn from the mistakes over there."

After years of importing doctors, Britain earlier this year announced it was shutting the door to applicants from other Commonwealth countries, including Australia. Australia, which also has counted overseas-trained doctors among its biggest imports for many years, could start engaging in its own form of exclusion as soon as next year......

 

[br00t]

Ahh yes Dave L posted this article in another forum. It's good to see that there's been some recognition to future problems.

 

[~shinigami~]

So like I have no idea about this issue at all so this is more of a question than a suggestion but does closing some medical schools and reducing med student spots help at all?

 

[chinaski]

So like I have no idea about this issue at all so this is more of a question than a suggestion but does closing some medical schools and reducing med student spots help at all?

It's politically difficult and fraught to shut med schools once they are open, because of the pull power and prestige that a med school brings to a university. What is probably more achievable is to simply stop increasing numbers, and start reducing them instead. The increase can begin again once numbers level out (and infrastructure is created), and be increased slowly and gradually with plans in place, further in the future.

 

[ceejay]

Does anyone really think that come 2012 (considering there is a Federal election in 2010, NSW State in 2011), that the Government will not be providing the intern positions and training places that are required? Perhaps we need to look at this as a positive and treat the process as a long overdue shake up. Instead of scaremongering with talk of 'end of days', perhaps come up with some solutions - many of you have come up with examples of the negative ramifications, with self-interest paramount in your argument.

Use the UK system as an example! Get out of the comfort zone! The AMA is the most powerful union body in Australia. If you think otherwise maybe you should take a look at the locum rates, for example. They slide under the radar quite nicely (and all power to them). They will be pushing hard leading up to the tsunami to have the problem rectified.

If you feel so strongly about it, get involved. Write to the AMA for example (yes I have already done so). First step - stop the influx of overseas trained dr's.

The solution will no doubt involve more competition for the most desired places, but show me a profession that not only guarantees you a job after graduation, but virtually for the rest of your career (unless you mess up)?