Hi A1, with your algorithm – someone with a 99.95/100%ile would have 80-90% chance for an offer, that means for them to not receive the offer, they would have to fall within the bottom 10-20% of the interviewed cohort. I.e. If you are at the top of 2 components, but at the very bottom of the third component – you are unlikely to receive an offer. Please do correct me if I'm wrong.
However, wouldn't that apply for the ATAR/UMAT too, where, say you are ranked near the top for your ATAR but ranked at the very bottom for your UMAT amongst all interviewees (just enough to receive an interview) – no matter how well you perform in the interview, you are still at the very bottom of the UMAT component (bottom 10-20%), and so you would still not receive an offer either way even with the other two components near the top (according to the algorithm above)?