Hey mate, also a former metro applicant here - you can definitely get into JCU with an ATAR of 98!
1. Like Enzokken stated, it very much depends on who is applying to JCU that year and what the average ATAR is for that cohort. There are people in my cohort with ATARs ranging from 89-99.95, and the majority of those who are metro applicants (Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney etc) had ATARs ranging from 95-99.95, so don't let the ATAR be the biggest source of discouragement!
Unfortunately, we no longer have the supplementary application for medicine where you could talk about your background, but if you get an interview then talking about the challenges of coming to a new country as a refugee and how that's impacted you/your choices on wanting to pursue medicine would be something that I would definitely try and weave into your interview!
As for your second and third questions, respectively:
2. Studying at JCU would definitely NOT hinder your eventual goal of wanting to do surgery; however, JCU as a university/medical program does place a lot of emphasis on Rural Generalism, but over the past few years, the student-run clubs/associations have been doing lots of different events covering a wide range of specialties! If you're interested in surgery, then check out the JCU Surgical Society's events/social media - we do guest speaker nights and surgical skills nights etc. Also, at the end of your first year, you can do your 2-week elective placement in whatever specialty you want (i.e cardiothoracics), assuming you can find a supervisor/get one of the College of Medicine's pre-arranged placements in surgery. You will also have opportunities to see theatre/scrub in later in your degree, including on rural placements, and during your surgical rotations in 5th and 6th year as well, so plenty of opportunities for exposure.
This is also assuming that you do not go and seek out extra curricular opportunities in surgery outside of the curriculum by the way, Townsville is a full tertiary centre so we've got every speciality in surgery aside from major burns/trauma as that all goes down to Brisbane, but we have Ortho, CT, Neurosurg, Vascular, General, Breast/Endocrine, Colorectal, Urology/UroGynae, Obstetrics and Plastics all at Townsville University Hospital. Cairns Base Hospital just doesn't have Cardiothoracics and Neurosurgery (for now), but again, your proper surgical terms aren't until Year 5 of the MBBS program. Happy to answer any more specifics about this if you want as well!
3. Studying at JCU would not hinder your prospects of getting a job during your postgraduate years (PGY) as a junior doctor (PGY2+) in Melbourne; however, it might affect your ability to get a job as an Intern (PGY1). Basically, every state in Australia categorises the applicants via different scoring systems (some systems have changed recently), but if you are an Australian citizen/PR and have graduated from a medical school in QLD, you will be a lower priority for intern positions in Victoria relative to the Victorian grads, and vice versa for them in QLD (you get higher preference in QLD vs a Victorian medical school graduate). Victoria and QLD also have slightly different training schemes for specialty training depending on what you want to pursue, but you can always find that info on the specialty-specific websites for their respective Royal Colleges (i.e Royal Australasian College of Surgeons aka RACS). If you are not an Australian citizen/PR, you will be considered in a lower category than the "Domestic" applicants, but this doesn't mean you won't get a job, it just means that you might not get a metro internship position in the first round of offers/may have to interview at the various hospitals you are applying to/submit a CV etc.
In terms of Internship, though it's early for you to think about it right now, have a read of this (AMSA Internship Guide 2025) as it covers the basics of the categorisation systems and the major hospitals you can do your internship training at:
AMSA Internship Guide 2025 – Australian Medical Students Association .
If it makes you feel any better, I know plenty of surgical registrars and consultants who are all JCU graduates, or who have done their internships in Townsville/Cairns/Mackay and have all said that they're very happy having done it that way!
Biggest thing to make note of: Internship and specialty training requirements are subject to change year to year, so DON'T base where you go to medical school off of the requirements right now, as by the time you're graduating, things could have changed exponentially. Also, the bigger the school/program/hospital, the harder it can be at times to get exposure to different specialties or procedural skills in the hospital, so that is something to keep in mind as well.
Apply to medical schools that you think you would enjoy going to/that you feel like align with your own belief systems, and the whole journey will be much easier!
Hope all of that helps, and all the best with your applications!