Medical Graduate Tsunami

[lordgarlic]

With each successive year the number of junior doctors not on specialist training pathways will increase, demand will increase, supply will the stay the same. Each year the problem for specialist training will get worse. I'm at least among the first in line to enter the bottleneck.... even if, as things are already, the bottleneck is very tight.

Like Matt, I'm very glad to be at the start of the bottleneck rather than the end. I expect New Zealand to have similar issues because we have increased medical school places by around 35-40% in the last 4-5 years so there may be a backlog that could affect us (again I'm ahead of the backlog). The issue for Matt and Myself I expect would be whether or not to dive right into specialist training. If you went back a few years, there was definitely time to fluff around, take time off, see the world and still come back to a specialist training post usually. Nowadays, it could be significantly more difficult to do so.

In regards to posters whom have suggested academic merit as a selection criteria I don't think that is a good idea at all. Half the reason is because a lot of medical schools run on a pass/fail system, so how are you supposed to rank students? Also there is a phenomenal amount of buttering up consultants for references which gives huge variablity. This is complicated by the fact the consultant doesn't know you at all since they see you maybe 2 days a week for a 4-6 week rotation. Essentially you are telling them what to say. I think ballot is still the way internships should be allocated (even though in NZ is basically identical to the Victorian System). Perhaps it's because I don't have a whole bunch of distinctions! but then again I don't think I'm any less capable as an intern that my classmates with a good distinction record

 

[woozy]

lol, todays SMH https://www.smh.com.au/national/edu...cal-students-on-the-outer-20110103-19dwp.html

 

[chinaski]

I whole-heartedly agree that the universities have an ethical obligation to be transparent, and to inform all potential internationals as to the uncertainty of jobs. They have been shockingly deceptive at times (either lying by omission or suggesting things will definitely be fixed by the time the student graduates), and really should be censured over their behaviour. Nonetheless, I have very little sympathy for students, such as the one quoted in that article, who study in Australia fully well knowing of the employment crisis. If they choose to enter the gamble, that is the chance they take, with full awareness of the consequences.

 

[Kyle]

lol, todays SMH https://www.smh.com.au/national/edu...cal-students-on-the-outer-20110103-19dwp.html

*bows*

Can I suggest keeping an eye on the Sun Herald over the next few weeks too .

 

[godoftoast]

I am ****ed. Nothing else to add Looks like I wont become a cardiologist or something Why must you ruin my blissful ignorance

 

[Jjub]

So the more I research the more I'm convinced that csp students are currently fine... I found the following article referenced in a number of places that affirms the government's commitment to "provide high-quality clinical placements and intern training for Commonwealth-funded medical and nursing students."

https://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/mr-yr10-dept-dept120210.htm

This makes me more comfortable about taking up a medical place in terms of getting an internship (but I get that there are no guarantees of further specialist training)... am I being delusional?

So it seems domestic full fee and internationals are in a tough position... other than Bond, are there any full fee domestics anymore (I'm guessing there are some 3rd year< students remaining?)

For internationals, are there any foreign countries where it's possible to do internship? I really think international places should be suspended until this issue is sorted out.. it seems like a dead end street at the moment. How do the international prospective students on this forum feel? Are you still considering going to uni in Aus this year for Med?

 

[chinaski]

So the more I research the more I'm convinced that csp students are currently fine... I found the following article referenced in a number of places that affirms the government's commitment to "provide high-quality clinical placements and intern training for Commonwealth-funded medical and nursing students."

https://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/mr-yr10-dept-dept120210.htm

This makes me more comfortable about taking up a medical place in terms of getting an internship (but I get that there are no guarantees of further specialist training)... am I being delusional?

So you're feeling reassured by statements made by the very people who were instrumental in creating this mess in the first place? And it doesn't worry you that there's no mention of further specialist training?

So it seems domestic full fee and internationals are in a tough position... other than Bond, are there any full fee domestics anymore (I'm guessing there are some 3rd year< students remaining?)

Yep - Notre Dame and Melbourne.

For internationals, are there any foreign countries where it's possible to do internship? I really think international places should be suspended until this issue is sorted out.. it seems like a dead end street at the moment.

Suspension of international places won't occur so long as the universities keep grabbing for money. It would actually have a twofold positive affect: not only would enrollments drop from taking out international numbers, but local places would probably also decrease as a consequence of losing the funding that international fees bring to the faculty.

Depending on their country of origin, international students often have the option of going home to work. Up until this point, many of them have used Australia as a "back up" plan for employment - they apply for jobs at home and here, and take up work in Australia until work at home transpires (most marked with North American students who work for half a year in Australia, then break contract - severely disrupting the roster - to return home when work begins in the Northern Hemisphere summer). This is unlike Australian students, who, by and large, don't have the luxury of two options for employment. Completion of a medical degree has also been seen as a way of settling permanently in Australia for some - without employment, this avenue will no longer be open to them.

 

[Jjub]

Depending on their country of origin, international students often have the option of going home to work. Up until this point, many of them have used Australia as a "back up" plan for employment - they apply for jobs at home and here, and take up work in Australia until work at home transpires (most marked with North American students who work for half a year in Australia, then break contract - severely disrupting the roster - to return home when work begins in the Northern Hemisphere summer). This is unlike Australian students, who, by and large, don't have the luxury of two options for employment.

As a last resort could Aussies go and work in North America (I am guessing this is Canada...)?

 

[chinaski]

As a last resort could Aussies go and work in North America (I am guessing this is Canada...)?

The US is virtually impossible to a non-US resident, and Canada also has restrictions on internationals.

 

[Avenue]

If the 'tsunami' is predicted to hit QLD first, is it a better idea to aim for other universities in different states, or will everywhere be affected pretty much straight after?

 

[somethingfishy]

If the 'tsunami' is predicted to hit QLD first, is it a better idea to aim for other universities in different states, or will everywhere be affected pretty much straight after?

Can you graduate from Queensland and still apply for internship in another state? Or just in Queensland?

 

[chinaski]

You can apply for jobs in all the states and territories, but as a rule of thumb, graduates from within those areas will get looked after first. BTW @Avenue: the tsunami is in the process of hitting - it's not just a theoretical prediction these days.

 

[Kyle]

For a (somewhat rosy) look at internships in other countries, give this a (critical) look.

https://sydney.edu.au/medicine/future-students/medical-program/internships/index.php

 

[Vampires_Don't_Sparkle]

-sigh-

Maybe I should try for dentistry instead, then...

 

[n0d3]

So the more I research the more I'm convinced that csp students are currently fine... I found the following article referenced in a number of places that affirms the government's commitment to "provide high-quality clinical placements and intern training for Commonwealth-funded medical and nursing students."

https://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/mr-yr10-dept-dept120210.htm

This makes me more comfortable about taking up a medical place in terms of getting an internship (but I get that there are no guarantees of further specialist training)... am I being delusional?

So it seems domestic full fee and internationals are in a tough position... other than Bond, are there any full fee domestics anymore (I'm guessing there are some 3rd year< students remaining?)

For internationals, are there any foreign countries where it's possible to do internship? I really think international places should be suspended until this issue is sorted out.. it seems like a dead end street at the moment. How do the international prospective students on this forum feel? Are you still considering going to uni in Aus this year for Med?

As chinaski has mentioned, suspending international places will not make financial sense to the university as it's a source of income to offset other costs.

As an international student from SE Asia, I feel that apart from our own local universities, the universities in Australia provide a quality education that is within reach both in terms of distance and cost. Some find the UK to be too far away and/or too expensive (although now the pound has dropped to a historically low exchange rate). I guess that's what makes Australia so appealing for some internationals even though the prospects of obtaining an internship in the future is kinda bleak at the moment. And most of us still have the option of interning back in our home country as the med degree is recognised and I don't think there is a shortage of internship places in Singapore...or so my friends tell me.

 

[lindiie]

This...depresses me =.=

 

[vitualis]

The big question is: when exactly will this tsunami hit?

The tsunami hits next year, 2012, when the first group of graduates from the new medical schools enter the work force.

The thing to realise is that the lack of internship positions is only the most visible part of the vocational training bottleneck. With double the graduates (compared to a few years ago), not only do you need double the internship positions (which might be doable), but you also need double the PGY2, PGY3, etc., positions as well. After that, there is the need for specialist training positions.

There is a medical workforce shortage, but there is no shortage of JMOs. To accommodate the graduates, there needs to be co-ordination in two levels of government, as well as into the private sector (training providers and the Colleges), which are of course not under the direct control of any government. Even if the money for positions and training is delivered, there will still be a substantial shortfall in infrastructure and supervisors.

Someone up this thread mentioned that perhaps internship should be considered a privilege rather than an entitlement, and that no other industry gives a "guaranteed" job. Remember, however, that the purpose of a medical degree is to create graduates to the level of an intern only, and that there are no private sector options for accredited further training. Internship is effectively part of your medical degree insofar that you must complete it satisfactorily to gain general registration. I would also argue that given the purpose of expanding medical school positions was to eventually address the workforce shortage, it seems remarkably short-sighted to then cut people off at vocational training.

Basically:
- the tsunami is real and is a big problem
- don't be apathetic about this issue!

Regards.

 

[lordgarlic]

The biggest worry for me graduating end of this year and doing internship in 2012 is whether or not I should dive into vocational training as soon as possible. Luckily for me I have a fair idea about where I'm interested in but I need to do SHO runs/Resident runs in AUS before coming a firm conclusion

I suppose I'm a little bit luckier that things on this side of the tasman sea are just a little bit easier in terms of bottleneck. Our massive increase in students will graduate 3-4 years after me so I'm fairly safe in that regards for now

 

[vitualis]

NZ could be the easy option for the excess of Australian graduates though!

Cheers.

 

[JeremiahGreenspoon]

NZ could be the easy option for the excess of Australian graduates though!

Is that saying that there is plenty of training capacity for interns there?
Assuming the health care systems are fairly similar, that seems like an interesting opportunity (from the perspective of someone who knows very little about the issue but would like to live in NZ for a while).