Estimating offer chances for Monash locals is difficult due to the wide ranges of interviewees' ATAR & UCAT. Some first round may have as low as 97-98 ATAR, some second round 88-90%ile UCAT (if they have like 99.90).Assuming a second round interview goes well, would a UCAT of 93 percentile and ATAR of 99.4 put me in a decent chance for a non CSP offer at monash ? I mentioned non CSP as CSP is a big ask.
My best guess is Monash interviews around 350 non-DRL locals for 140 places, split into 100 CSP + 40 BMP. So *on average* an interviewee has 100/350= 30% chance for CSP, 140/350= 40% chance for an offer including BMP.
Now judge where your 99.4+93%ile sits relative to the interview cohort. If it's average you have the abovementioned 30-40% chances. If above average you have better than 30-40% chances and vice versa.