Discussion: State and University-based Selection Bias

[dotwingz]

I'd say theyre going to put it down to covid reasons (specifically that the borders are closed) as theyve insisted in the guide that interviews will be strictly face to face

I'm definitely not.

Yeah this is good news for you!

 

[A1]

genuinely curious what reason theyre going to provide

One possible reply is they have had so many offers declined by interstate applicants before they are not going to waste as much interview time on them this year

 

[Crow]

One possible reply is they have had so many offers declined by interstate applicants before they are not going to waste as much interview time on them this year

I imagine that’s the primary motive, to save themselves time and money, but that doesn’t address the real issue at hand.

 

[DrDrLMG!]

One possible reply is they have had so many offers declined by interstate applicants before they are not going to waste as much interview time on them this year

As much as they don't interview, so it's somewhat less of an issue, I am convinced this is what happened with the rapid fire changes for UTAS between 2018/19/20 entry with low interstate offers, huge amounts of interstate offers, and then down to almost no interstate offers. It absolutely makes sense, but is completely at odds with their own (very strongly worded!) statement.

ETA: looking at last year's data...

Non-rural offers reported here: 20 total, 13 declined
Rural offers reported here: 9 total, 5 declined

If this is representative, then their decline rate was a fair bit above 50% (a stretch on the extrapolation, I know, but generally our data is a decent subset).

ETA 2: 2019 entry data

Total rural + non-rural: 24, total declines 10 (though note that I was less stringent with reporting declines back then, so it's not likely accurate and is rather an underestimate).

 

[A1]

I imagine that’s the primary motive,

I'm going to elaborate further that, if that's the case Adelaide should filter out the interstate high UCATs, because they are more likely to get a home state offer and decline Adelaide.

For example last year uniform cutoff 2860, this year for SA students 2700 no upper limit, interstate students 2860 up to 3000 ceiling.

(Just sayin' , please don't ban me )

 

[TKAO]

I was going to mention what Yeezy noticed earlier when everyone was talking about Monash bias but I thought it wasn't relevant lol. It is explicitly stated in the Adelaide Medical School admissions guide for 2021 on page 6:
View attachment 3863

Honestly this seems pretty terrifying to me. If this trend of each state favouring their own applicants over those of others, this could really limit people down in a bad direction. I'd hate to see this continue.

 

[ucatboy]

Honestly this seems pretty terrifying to me. If this trend of each state favouring their own applicants over those of others, this could really limit people down in a bad direction. I'd hate to see this continue.

What if every med uni in Australia starts only taking local (in-state) applications this year...haha jk...unless?

 

[2xq]

What if every med uni in Australia starts only taking local (in-state) applications this year...haha jk...unless?

welp i guess its time to rent a place in every single state to be considered local for all the states jks

 

[A1]

What if every med uni in Australia starts only taking local (in-state) applications this year...haha jk...

I'm in strong support of this idea actually, since the federal gov already allocate CSP quotas approximately proportional to state population.

Maybe not strictly locals only, let's say every school takes 90% locals 10% interstate. But what about non-standards for UNSW WSU JMP, should they be limited to NSW uni students?

 

[Crow]

I'm in strong support of this idea actually, since the federal gov already allocate CSP quotas approximately proportional to state population.

Maybe not strictly locals only, let's say every school takes 90% locals 10% interstate. But what about non-standards for UNSW WSU JMP, should they be limited to NSW uni students?

That’s a no from me, unless the schools were to standardise their admissions criteria so it’s the same at every one - which will never happen. Also, people move states once they finish school, and it’s not fair to restrict them to the one they graduated from.

 

[dotwingz]

Agreed with crow. But to add I wouldn’t think a standardised admissions process would even justify it. The diverse range of different admissions processes in Australia produces a workforce that is diverse in interests and career goals. Imagine if all the schools only used atar? We’d have a profession full of gunner types (even more so then now) who’ll clog up coveted specialties, etc

 

[A1]

Also, people move states once they finish school

That's why I suggested 10% for interstates, or up it to 20% if stats show that 20% of students *naturally* move states just after Y12 (i.e. not including moving because they have only got an interstate med offer).

That’s a no from me, unless the schools were to standardise their admissions criteria so it’s the same at every one

The selection criteria, as they currently are, would be the same for all students in the state. I don't think it's relevant to require schools in other states to all have the same criteria, in the context of limiting selection to largely local students.

 

[Crow]

The selection criteria, as they currently are, would be the same for all students in the state. I don't think it's relevant to require schools in other states to all have the same criteria, in the context of limiting offers to largely local students.

Well, it’s pretty unfair to say, Victorians or South Australians who would HAVE to have near-perfect ATARs to get into medicine, in comparison to NSWers who have three different schools with three different selection criteria to suit their strengths, same with QLD. Too bad to those who can smash UCAT and an interview but have a slightly lower ATAR - if you’re born in Vic that’s too bad? Seems unnecessarily inequitable (which really sums up limiting applicants to in-state graduates currently imo).

 

[A1]

Too bad to those who can smash UCAT and an interview but have a slightly lower ATAR - if you’re born in Vic that’s too bad?

ATAR is a rank *within* each state, not nationally i.e. each state has identical percentages of 99.9s 99.8s etc. If selection is limited to largely local students they don't face competition from the very high ATARs from other states, so their own ATAR cutoff would drop lower.

 

[Crow]

ATAR is a rank *within* each state, not nationally i.e. each state has identical percentages of 99.9s 99.8s etc. If selection is limited to largely local students they don't face competition from the very high ATARs from other states, so their own ATAR cutoff would drop lower.

That wasn’t actually the point I was making. In NSW you could have an ATAR of 95.5 and get into both JMP and WSU. Outside of NSW if you get an ATAR of 95.5 then you can’t get into medical school full stop. Your proposal isn’t equitable if schools have different selection criteria.

 

[A1]

In NSW you could have an ATAR of 95.5 and get into both JMP and WSU. Outside of NSW if you get an ATAR of 95.5 then you can’t get into medical school full stop.

While WSU & JMP make it possible for interstate students with 95.5 to get selected it's detrimental to NSW 95.5-98.5 students since they "lose" these med places to outsiders yet they are not able to compete for a place in other states (due to their high ATAR requirements). So the current diversified selection criteria are not without unfairness.

EtA: This^ needs to be read with the context that the federal gov has allocated med quotas roughly proportional to state population.

 

[dande]

surely they can be nice to vic students . also how will rural classification work in this scenario. are they in another subsection or still classified as local/interstate?

 

[Crow]

surely they can be nice to vic students . also how will rural classification work in this scenario. are they in another subsection or still classified as local/interstate?

The reason this thread exists is because “they” (Monash) are TOO nice to Vic students!

 

[dande]

I'm going to elaborate further that, if that's the case Adelaide should filter out the interstate high UCATs, because they are more likely to get a home state offer and decline Adelaide.

For example last year uniform cutoff 2860, this year for SA students 2700 no upper limit, interstate students 2860 up to 3000 ceiling.

(Just sayin' , please don't ban me )

and hang on a sec, so if you did well on the ucat your probably going to be less likely to get an interview?

 

[A1]

and hang on a sec, so if you did well on the ucat your probably going to be less likely to get an interview?

Yes, for interstate applicants to Adelaide. But only if my unorthodox suggestion gets adopted and there's near zero chance it will