In my experience medicine cutoffs are like supermarket prices, they only go up provided nothing unusual happens (e.g. Queensland's half-size Year 12 cohort in 2019 temporarily lowering UQ cutoffs that year). This is particularly true for Flinders, whose entry requirements have roughly progressed like so:
Pre-2018
99.95: ~50%ile+ needed
99.90: ~70%ile+ needed
99.85: ~90%ile+ needed
2018
99.95: ~60%ile+ needed
99.90: ~80%ile+ needed
99.85: unknown, high 90s possibly = offer
2019
99.95: ~80%ile+ needed
99.90:
~99.8%ile+ (wtf) needed
99.85:
no hope 
2020
99.95: ~85%ile+ needed
99.90:
no hope 
99.85:
no hope
Both of the reasons you mentioned will likely impact cutoffs, but the only hope is that SATAC is clamping down on abuse of its UES system, namely attending a disadvantaged school in Year 13 to get those sweet equity points whilst also preserving your ATAR from the year before. Fingers crossed.