(I apologize in advance for what I've just realised looks rather like I'm torching your post line by line haha)
Since this is the first year HSFY has been like this you all have a chance to shoot for the stars and set records
I'm going to go out on a limb here. I genuinely do not think this will affect the HSFY grades you need to get in all that much.
Because not that many seats actually changed hands because of it.
Gasp.
It was very rare to miss out on medicine if you had a very high HSFY average. MSO usually attracts one every second year or so. Similarly rare to 'jump the queue' and get in with an average under about 87. I've literally met one or two of these in total.
Which meant that UMAT only really affected the people within that ~87-93 range. The 'UMAT susceptibility zone'. So, even if UMAT massively altered the ranking order, it wouldn't have huge room to change the cut-off. Which it doesn't really, because:
A) The 2/3 : 1/3 weighting
First up, HSFY averages were weighted double what your UMAT raw score was. Double the impact anyway - to counterbalance a 3% difference in HSFY grades you'd need a UMAT raw score difference of 6 (which is what, 10 or so percentiles?).
B) Overlapping scores
It's also worth noting that at a cohort level, UMAT scores are actually pretty strongly positively correlated with academic grades. Which reduces the effect of removing UMAT on the overall ranking of candidates. Yes, there's the stories you always hear of someone with a 97% HSFY average and a 0-24th %ile UMAT, but those are more rare than they're made out to be.
Tbh I have my doubts removing UMAT would change the HSFY grade requirements by more than 2%. So by way less than the other variables which routinely change the cut-off. Things like the exact balance of grads to undergrads, exact number of Māori and rural applicants etc each year.
Buuuut this is all academic. Because we've obviously never calculated a 'HSFY grades cut-off', because it's never been a thing before. It'll be impossible without the university's full applicant datasets to know whether the GPA shifts from this year on.
I honestly think they should just scrap the UCAT and base it fully on HSFY gpa as there are many reasons to do so, not saying others can't argue the opposite way just as well.
So I'm going to take 'not saying others can't argue the opposite way just as well' as a personal challenge.
While I actually quite like UMAT (which may be at least a little biased by what helped me over the line), I've proposed something similar in the past. It sounds sort of instinctively reasonable, doesn't it?
And one hand, the best predictive factor for medical school performance is prior academic performance. While this isn't surprising (academic performance predicts academic performance, shocker). So yes, as far as the limited evidence for medical school performance goes, using only grades sounds pretty good.
But.
1. I kept saying 'medical school performance' for a reason. That reason being evidence for predicting 'who will be a good doctor' would require a widely-agreed and measurable definition of 'a good doctor'. So whether it's actually all that important to 'doctor quality' to be able to get a 95% HSFY average is debatable.
It also almost certainly isn't a linear association. While you need a certain level of academic aptitude - and much more so a capacity to retain huge volumes of information - it probably doesn't make much difference whether you're 'just smart' or Steven Hawking.
So do you need to be able to score over 70% in all the papers to get through medicine?
Probably.
Will someone who gets a 90% health sci average do better in medicine than someone who only just got those 70%s?
Possibly.
Does a 98% HSFY average indicate you'll be a better doctor than someone with a 92% one?
Very unlikely.
It's also interesting to stop looking at it just as a competition. Say instead, you were setting an academic bar, and every single person who cleared it would get a medical school seat (regardless of whether that meant 5 people or 500 got in).
Would you be able to justify setting it at 95%? Or, on what grounds would you increase it from it's current ~91% up to, say 95%?
2. While academic performance is the single best predictor, so far as I know we don't have very good evidence regarding overall selection systems. That said, I'd be willing to bet that a combination system of some form would produce a more diverse, well-rounded and probably 'better suited to medicine' cohort than grades alone.
3. In the interest of both social justice and fairness to individual applicants, entry to medical school should be equitable. If the process was completely equitable, then a beginning medical school class would more or less reflect the ethnic/social group and economic-background distribution of the underlying population.
As such, if a second year medical school class was, say, entirely white males from families in the top 10% household earnings (i.e. if this was Otago in the 90's), you'd suspect that maybe the selection process wasn't entirely equitable.
This is one of the few criticisms I have of HSFY as a selection system is its socioeconomic fairness to applicants.
It's obviously significantly better than the 'straight out of high school' systems. At least everyone is taught the same content over the same time period and sits exactly the same exams, which helps to minimize the effects of systemic dis/advantages. But it's only a year out of high school, which isn't enough to make all of the inequalities in quality of schooling, parental/community attitudes to academia etc just go away.
The effects of those inequalities is obviously pretty high at the sharp end of the competition. And the cut-off is already incredibly high, so it'd be hard to justify making that worse.
But more importantly, a test like UMAT adds an extra selection variable - one which is likely less susceptible to the effects of those inequalities (due to the evidence against the efficacy of paid preparation). Or at least, probably not exactly the same effects in exactly the same way.