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Post-UCAT Discussion 2020

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I guess it kinda makes sense how we had so many 3200+ scores reported on MSO this year (24 in total), when last year we had only four: 3x 3200s (no 3300s) and 1x 3530. The increase in standard deviation from 269.7 to 307 this year represents a "widening" of the normal distribution, which makes a huge difference at the higher end of the score spectrum: last year's 3200 is equal to this year's 3350, while last year's 3250 is equal to this year's 3400 rarity-wise.
 
ucatboy said:
I guess it kinda makes sense how we had so many 3200+ scores reported on MSO this year (24 in total), when last year we had only four: 3x 3200s (no 3300s) and 1x 3530. The increase in standard deviation from 269.7 to 307 this year represents a "widening" of the normal distribution, which makes a huge difference at the higher end of the score spectrum: last year's 3200 is equal to this year's 3350, while last year's 3250 is equal to this year's 3400 rarity-wise.
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approx. how many people score in the 99th percentile?
 
Hey ucatboy, do u think there’s a possibility that there happens to be a lot of scores in the 2900-3100 range? (With a significant drop off)
 
yuzzy said:
Hey ucatboy, do u think there’s a possibility that there happens to be a lot of scores in the 2900-3100 range? (With a significant drop off)
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It's definitely less pronounced but you can definitely feel it even with regards to the 90th percentile placement - notice how 90th percentile went up by 80, but the mean went up by 45 only. That's the result of the larger standard deviation "spreading" the scores apart.

The score disparities only get larger the more standard deviations you go above the mean i.e. FunTime's 3530 in 2019 is equal to a 3730 score in 2020, which is impossible to get lmao.
 
I love this statement that they put at the bottom of the statistics:
"NOTE: The 1st decile represents a score at the 10th percentile; the 2nd decile represents a score at the 20th percentile, and so on."
Just in case us Med applicants and UCAT test sitters weren't aware how deciles work...
 
Here are the bell curves with 2019 and 2020 UCAT data. If you zoom in on the 3300+ range of scores, you'll be able to better see what I'm talking about with regards to the spreading out of the scores - At 3300, the 2019 curve has basically fallen to zero, while the 2020 one is still going strong.

[MedStudentsOnline.com.au] Post-UCAT Discussion 2020
 
ucatboy said:
I guess it kinda makes sense how we had so many 3200+ scores reported on MSO this year (24 in total), when last year we had only four: 3x 3200s (no 3300s) and 1x 3530. The increase in standard deviation from 269.7 to 307 this year represents a "widening" of the normal distribution, which makes a huge difference at the higher end of the score spectrum: last year's 3200 is equal to this year's 3350, while last year's 3250 is equal to this year's 3400 rarity-wise.
Click to expand...
Welp. Griffith here I come!
 
ucatboy said:
Did the math and the standard deviation works out to approximately 307 (rounded to the nearest whole number)

With a 2527 and 307 mean, here are the extrapolated upper percentiles:

95th: 3030
96th: 3060
97th: 3100
98th: 3160
99th: 3240

The 99th percentile cutoff has gone up 110 from 3130 in 2019.

😳😳
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What would the scores be for 91st-94th percentile?
 
“Is it worth preparing for an interview if my score is x” is just a paraphrased version of “what are my chances?”. I understand the uncertainty and anxiety behind the process (have been through it multiple times myself) but PLEASE hold back on these questions until the percentile calculator is released.
 
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