UCAT Results Discussion 2019

[DrDrLMG!]

Applying for: Medicine
Application Type: School leaver NZ
Predicted ATAR/GPA: actual Cambridge A Level 3A*s
UCAT Percentile Rank: 85
SJ:550
Current State: New Zealand
Applying to: curtin, uwa, utas, griffith, uq, flinders
Rural Applicant: no
GWS Applicant: no
Indigenous Applicant: no
Other: none
Specific Question: what are my chances of an offer for the above universities?

Your UCAT will rule you out of UQ.
The rest will depend on how your A levels result converts to ATAR. For Flinders, Griffith, and probably Utas, you'll need a high 99. For UWA, above 99 and hope that your UCAT is enough. For Curtin, it will be a combination of your UCAT and ATAR conversion. Your UCAT is probably on the lower side, but fingers crossed.

 

[A1]

This isn't Adelaide-specific but it would do everyone well to hear it: If you are invited for an interview, you do have a chance.

Unfortunately I feel this^ should be clarified. This used to be the case but now with Adelaide's method of interview selection I'm sure there are interviewees who stand no chance of a place offer.

Since Adelaide specify an ATAR minimum of 90.0 hypothetically there could be an interviewee with say 91.0 & 91%ile. This applicant would be in the bottom 5% of the invitee cohort, even an absolute top interview (which counts 40% vs the other two's 60%) won't be able to lift them from bottom 5% to the top 15% final for a place offer.

I use ATAR 91.0 to illustrate it more readily, I think even 96-97.0 would have a similar fate.

 

[Crow]

Unfortunately I feel this^ should be clarified. This used to be the case but now with Adelaide's method of interview selection I'm sure there are interviewees who stand no chance of a place offer.

Since Adelaide specify an ATAR minimum of 90.0 hypothetically there could be an interviewee with say 91.0 & 91%ile. This applicant would be in the bottom 5% of the interview cohort, even an absolute top interview (which counts 40% vs the other two's 60%) won't be able to lift them from bottom 5% to the top 15% final for a place offer.

I use ATAR 91.0 to illustrate it more readily, I think even 96-97.0 would have a similar fate.

Oh yes, you’re completely right. Adelaide is the exception. I find this method bizarre - UQ and Flinders’ method for graduate entry medicine is the same and it doesn’t really make sense to me.

 

[A1]

Anyway, it's important to keep in mind that there are something like 70000 students completing HSC and another similar number for VCE. Then add in the just under 20000ish for SACE and I have no idea for the rest of the country and that 27% (of an already small number compared to other some other places) drops preeeetty quickly...

Australia-wide Y12 cohort is around 160,000 , 8000 fewer Qld is -5%.

UQ offer ~100 non-rural places, last year bonded went to 93rd %ile = 8 %ile brackets so roughly 12 places per %ile. All else being equal this year will fit in 95 applicants at 93%ile, the 5 "extra" places equates to a drop of about 0.4 percentile.

How's that for my maths?

 

[DrDrLMG!]

Australia-wide Y12 cohort is around 160,000 , 8000 fewer Qld is -5%.

UQ offer ~100 non-rural places, last year bonded went to 93rd %ile = 8 %ile brackets so roughly 12 places per %ile. All else being equal this year will fit in 95 applicants at 93%ile, the 5 "extra" places equates to a drop of about 0.4 percentile.

How's that for my maths?

Yeah, that's more what I was imagining with regard to any possible drop! Thanks for going the next step! Haha!

 

[TKAO]

Australia-wide Y12 cohort is around 160,000 , 8000 fewer Qld is -5%.

UQ offer ~100 non-rural places, last year bonded went to 93rd %ile = 8 %ile brackets so roughly 12 places per %ile. All else being equal this year will fit in 95 applicants at 93%ile, the 5 "extra" places equates to a drop of about 0.4 percentile.

How's that for my maths?

According to another one of your posts, the cutoff for bonded last year was 92nd:

I have searched through old records, my best recollection is

2016 intake : bonded 179 (89%ile) - unbonded 183 (92%ile)
2017 intake : 182 (91%ile) - 188 (94%ile)
2018 intake : 181 (91%ile) - 186 (93%ile)
2019 intake : 184 (92%ile) - 189 (95%ile)

These were UMAT %iles, raise your UCAT %ile by 1 for comparison.

Is it 93rd of 92nd? I'm really borderline on this one. Do we reckon that unbonded with drop by the theoretical 0.4 %ile as well? Or does that only apply to bonded?
On another note, is the assumption of raising your UCAT%ile by 1 still valid?

 

[A1]

According to another one of your posts, the cutoff for bonded last year was 92nd:

Is it 93rd of 92nd? I'm really borderline on this one. Do we reckon that unbonded with drop by the theoretical 0.4 %ile as well? Or does that only apply to bonded?
On another note, is the assumption of raising your UCAT%ile by 1 still valid?

In the collated data there's one 184 92nd but most show as 93rd %ile, I will stick with the latter.

Any drop should apply to both unbonded & bonded, maybe -0.3 for unbonded -0.4 for bonded.

Equating UCAT %ile to UMAT I'm now convinced by some posters the differential is 0.5 not 1 (since UMAT 100%ile represents 99.5 to 100). Combined with the 0.3-0.4 drop we should see a 1%ile drop on face value, if all else being equal.

 

[TKAO]

In the collated data there's one 184 92nd but most show as 93rd %ile, I will stick with the latter.

Any drop should apply to both unbonded & bonded, maybe -0.3 for unbonded -0.4 for bonded.

Equating UCAT %ile to UMAT I'm now convinced by some posters the differential is 0.5 not 1 (since UMAT 100%ile represents 99.5 to 100). Combined with the 0.3-0.4 drop we should see a 1%ile drop on face value, if all else being equal.

Thanks for the super detailed analysis A1!

 

[Jesus20]

Hi LMG, sorry to bother just wondering what my chances on entering med or dent will be with a low 70s UCAT and 99 ATAR.
I have applied to most unis across Australia and applied for eas.
Thank u

 

[DrDrLMG!]

Hi LMG, sorry to bother just wondering what my chances on entering med or dent will be with a low 70s UCAT and 99 ATAR.
I have applied to most unis across Australia and applied for eas.
Thank u

Assuming you are not rural, you will be unlikely to gain a place at any UCAT-requiring university for Med or Dent, unfortunately. Which means you will be relying on the non-UCAT universities and this will largely depend on where in the 99s your ATAR ends up. For Griffith you will need 99.75ish, for USyd, 99.95, for JCU it will be based on your ATAR and your written application. For UMelb, 99.90. UTAS is allegedly using UCAT as a hurdle, which means a high ATAR may be enough there, too, maybe something similar to Griffith.

I'll leave the Dent to Yamster.

 

[Yamster]

Hey Jesus20 - try applying for LaTrobe Dent as they don't require UCAT for school-leavers.

 

[ucatboy]

Hello,
Do you know how long can I expect to get a response from Pearson after emailing?
Something wrong my UCAT score reported to Universities. I emailed Pearson 3 days ago but I haven’t got any response yet.

Apparently they can do it in 4 hours, at least that's what their website advertises
On a side note, how do you know whether Pearson misreported your scores to universities?

 

[A1]

Based on the cutoff scores, I asked the universities

Which uni/school was this, and what cutoff scores did they tell you?
If you give us a fuller picture we may be able to help explain first.

 

[CHALLENGER]

Hey Jesus20 - try applying for LaTrobe Dent as they don't require UCAT for school-leavers.

Hi Yamster.
If Biology was not done for HSC is there anyway of full filling this prerequisite.

 

[Yamster]

Hey CHALLENGER, not too sure about that one! Call up the uni and see if there's any bridging courses you can do over the summer break maybe?

 

[doggy]

Hey CHALLENGER, not too sure about that one! Call up the uni and see if there's any bridging courses you can do over the summer break maybe?

oh...That's strange. When i called up asking if i could apply considering i haven't done chemistry, i was told i couldn't apply.

 

[Princess A]

Assuming you are not rural, you will be unlikely to gain a place at any UCAT-requiring university for Med or Dent, unfortunately. Which means you will be relying on the non-UCAT universities and this will largely depend on where in the 99s your ATAR ends up. For Griffith you will need 99.75ish, for USyd, 99.95, for JCU it will be based on your ATAR and your written application. For UMelb, 99.90. UTAS is allegedly using UCAT as a hurdle, which means a high ATAR may be enough there, too, maybe something similar to Griffith.

I'll leave the Dent to Yamster.

My friend has got an interview to Adelaide with UCAT in low 60's. She is from VIC, currently living non rural, but was in rural 5 - 6 years ago.

 

[Misa]

Hey guys, just wanted to ask what are my realistic chances for a UNSW interview/offer (if you could give approximate percentages that would be hectic). I'm on 2880 UCAT (92%ile) and my ATAR is probably going to lie around the 99.70-99.80 range.
Thanks for all your help guys

 

[A1]

Hey guys, just wanted to ask what are my realistic chances for a UNSW interview/offer (if you could give approximate percentages that would be hectic). I'm on 2880 UCAT (92%ile) and my ATAR is probably going to lie around the 99.70-99.80 range.
Thanks for all your help guys

You definitely should get a UNSW invite, your offer chance is around 30-40%. You can start practising for the interview now, good luck.

 

[threefivetwo]

Hi - was also wondering if I could get realistic chances for a UNSW interview invite/offer based on a 3020 UCAT (97th percentile) and 98.6 ATAR, then for a 99.00 ATAR? Thanks